* Market Moves *
Market Moves in Turkey
⚠️ Global Market Shock Warning
Geopolitical tensions (USA, Israel, Iran) are driving energy prices up, accelerating global inflation.
The inflation expectation based on the median and average of the aboved calculations shows an increasing trend for the Year- of-end (YoY) inflation. The war started by Israel and USA against Iran is a shock for the markets and this push the oil/petroleum prices GLOBALY up. The chain of Energy prices goes up with this trouble. The war is locally but effects all of us, with higher energy prices and this effects the consumption prices of consumer products.
📊 Institutional Frameworks
TÜRK-İŞ
Hunger/Poverty limits and living costs.
The Turkish Labour Union announces the Hunger and Poverty Limits monthly based on ILO (International Labour Organization a subsidary of the UN) calculations. It shows the monthly, yearly and Year-To-Date (YTD) and average changes in the basic costs of a labour familiy (two adults and two childs). We say that the Türk-İş Union Research shows the life-cost in the capitol of Turkey ANKARA from the labour perspective. Türk-İs is saying:"...As it is constantly emphasized; TÜRK-İŞ does not calculate inflation, it tries to determine the amount of "cost of living" that will provide a humane living for a family of four, and to calculate the burden that price increases bring to the family budget. The determined amount is not a wage, but the total income that must be brought into the household. The research conducted is not -as is thought- to determine the amount required for employees to "feed themselves", but to calculate the total expenditure that must be made "to live a life compatible with human dignity and value". ..." in their reasearch paper ( 31/1/2025 https://www.turkis.org.tr/turk-is-ocak-2025-aclik-ve-yoksulluk-siniri/ )
CBRT (TCMB)
Monetary aggregates analysis (M1-M3).
o calculate the "free from exchange rate effects" numbers, I use the Monatery Aggregates. The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) announces the Monatery Aggregates at there Statistical pages: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket.
From there I use the weekly money and bank statics. From the notional amounts index, the difference of unadjusted and adjusted valuations of the M1 M2 and M3 monatery aggregates gives me the exchange effect. With this effect I calculate the Year to Date % changes.
The use of Surveys data from the Turkish Central Bank, shows us the expectations of the Main Street and the Households. We can see how much Consumers trust the politicians of there promises.
M1,M2,M3 Money Supply Measures indicators by Turkish Cental Bank Money Supply Data by Turkish Republic Central Bank (TCMB), https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en
CBRT: Central Bank of Republic of Türkiye (Turkey)
CB Survey: Centralbank Market Participants and Sectoral Inflation Expectations, monthly frequence. Participants Financial sector 54 companies (30 Banks and and 24 non-banks) and Real Sector 18 companies. The expactation various between financial and non-financial sector spreadly. The households and the producing sectors expects higher inflation. The "with the money interest gainer service sector" expects lower inflation. Surveys: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Tendency+Surveys
🔍 Key Financial Terms
YTD: Year-to-Date
Average and Median calculated on the Price Index references
EuroRegion: use of Euro currency 21 EU members, consumer prices index
EU Region: the European Union (EU 27 countries) economic and political area
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
Tuik-B-CPI: B Consumer Price Index except for unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and gold grade.
CPI: Consumer Price Index
PPC: Producer Price Changes
Hi-Üfe : Service Producer Price Index Tarim-Üfe: Agriculture-Producer Price Index
Toptan: Wholesale
Raf ed.petr ürün :Refined petroleum product
1. ICOC Cost of Livinig Indicies for Wage Earrners 1995=100 2. ICOC Wholesale Price Index 1968=100 3. ICOC İstanul Consumer Price Index 2023=100
https://www.ito.org.tr/en ICOC: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce
⚠️ Interpretation
Turkey and the Never Ending Inflation Love-Story.
Turkey is a "inflation lovely" country. I assume that the Turkish Government Managment expects that the people of Turkey can better CALCULATE WITH BIG NUMBERS INSTEAD OF LITTLE NUMBERS so they push the inflation. The Turkish government makes statements in every media outlet claiming they will defeat inflation. However, the AKP government has been in power since 2001, and inflation had already been effectively combated until 2018. But towards the end of 2018, an upward trend began to emerge. The AKP administration's actions—parting ways with several of its colleagues, using the state apparatus for its own benefit to win general and local elections, engaging in ostentatious spending, prioritizing the service sector over the industrial sector—and opting for a growth model fueled by inflation, all demonstrate its commitment to success. Türkiye was presented to the world as a leader marketing "cheap labour." Indeed, the labor market expanded not with skilled workers and professions, but generally with security guards, waiters, service staff, and construction workers. During the pandemic, the support given to tradespeople and small and medium-sized and greater enterprises was shifted onto the public. The cost of the Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Anatolian earthquakes was also passed on to the public, despite the fact that their own contractor political party friends had constructed the buildings and were therefore culpable. The government, or rather those in political power, hide behind inflation and place the entire burden on the people, or rather, all voters. In a democratic sense, the political party that forms the government or holds the majority should also bear the costs or distribute them among its members if they, as the governing party, benefit from this situation.
📊Graphics
Graph YTD
And at least the international Central Bank rates, for the markets
The O/N rate for the TRY (Turkish Lira-TL) is at 40%
The (LON) Late-overnight rate is at 43%
The 1 Week Repo rate is at 37% (but actually not used)
The Market-Maker Banks rate is at 9.25%
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