* Market Moves *

update:2026, 05th March

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The inflation expectation based on the median and average of the aboved calculations shows a decreasing trend for the Year- of-end (YoY)  inflation. But inflation means higher prices,  the SPEED of the inflation is decreasing!!!!! 

Türk-İş, the Turkish Labour Union announces the Hunger and Poverty Limits monthly based on ILO calculations. It shows the monthly, yearly and Year-To-Date (YTD) and average changes in the basic costs of a labour familiy (two adults and two childs). We  say that the Türk-İş Union Research shows the life-cost in the capitol of Turkey ANKARA from the labour perspective. Türk-İs is saying:"...As it is constantly emphasized; TÜRK-İŞ does not calculate inflation, it tries to determine the amount of "cost of living" that will provide a humane living for a family of four, and to calculate the burden that price increases bring to the family budget. The determined amount is not a wage, but the total income that must be brought into the household. The research conducted is not -as is thought- to determine the amount required for employees to "feed themselves", but to calculate the total expenditure that must be made "to live a life compatible with human dignity and value". ..." in their reasearch paper ( 31/1/2025 https://www.turkis.org.tr/turk-is-ocak-2025-aclik-ve-yoksulluk-siniri/ )

To calculate the "free from exchange rate effects" numbers, I use the Monatery Aggregates. The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) announces the Monatery Aggregates at there Statistical pages: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket. 

From there I use the weekly money and bank statics. From the notional amounts index, the difference of unadjusted and adjusted valuations of the M1 M2 and M3 monatery aggregates gives me the exchange effect. With this effect I calculate the Year to Date % changes. 

The use of Surveys data from the Turkish Central Bank, shows us the expectations of the Main Street and the Households. We can see how much Consumers trust the politicians of there promises.

 

 

 Abbreviations 

Average and Median calculated on the Price Index references.

YoY: Year over Year      YTD: Year to Date                         
OVP: Turkish Government Medium Term Program target inflation end of Year 2025                                      
M1,M2,M3 Money Supply Measures indicators by Turkish Cental Bank Money Supply Data  by Turkish Republic Central Bank (TCMB), https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en

CBRT: Central Bank of Republic of Türkiye (Turkey)              

CB Survey:  Centralbank  Market Participants and Sectoral Inflation Expectations, monthly frequence. Participants Financial sector 54 companies (30 Banks and and 24 non-banks) and Real Sector 18 companies. The expactation various between financial and non-financial sector spreadly. The households and the producing sectors expects higher inflation. The "with the money interest gainer service sector" expects lower inflation.   Surveys: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Tendency+Surveys

                   
TUIK: Turkish National Statistic Organization   https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index Tuik-B-CPI:  B Consumer Price Index except for unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and gold grade. CPI: Consumer Price Index                                       PPC: Producer Price Changes  

 Hi-Üfe  : Service Producer Price Index     Tarim-Üfe: Agriculture-Producer Price Index                             Toptan: Wholesale             Raf ed.petr ürün :Refined petroleum product

 Türk-iş: Confederation of Turkish Labour Unions,    https://www.turkis.org.tr/turk-is-ocak-2025-aclik-ve-yoksulluk-siniri/

                                   
EuroRegion: EU members and use of Euro currency, consumer prices index                                   
EU Region: the European Union economic and political area                https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe                

 

ITO: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, https://www.ito.org.tr/en ICOC: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce 

             1. ICOC Cost of Livinig Indicies for Wage Earrners 1995=100 

             2. ICOC Wholesale Price Index 1968=100

             3. ICOC İstanul Consumer Price Index 2023=100

The ITO, Istanbul  Trade Chamber (ICOC) research shows the worker perspective in ISTANBUL.  ITO prints also the wholesale figure changes.  Starting from February 2025 they calculated the Istanbul Consumer Price Index with base 2023=100. The methodology can be found on https://ististatistik.ito.org.tr/public/files/bulten.pdf?1738744909 .

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Interpretation

 Turkey is a "inflation lovely" country.  The inflation rate is decreasing, but the inflation car has shifted from 5th gear to 4th gear. I assume that the Turkish Government Managment expects that the people of Turkey can better CALCULATE WITH BIG NUMBERS INSTEAD OF LITTLE NUMBERS so they push the inflation.     

The Turkish government makes statements in every media outlet claiming they will defeat inflation. However, the AKP government has been in power since 2001, and inflation had already been effectively combated until 2018. But towards the end of 2018, an upward trend began to emerge. The AKP administration's actions—parting ways with several of its colleagues, using the state apparatus for its own benefit to win general and local elections, engaging in ostentatious spending, prioritizing the service sector over the industrial sector—and opting for a growth model fueled by inflation, all demonstrate its commitment to success.  Türkiye was presented to the world as a leader marketing "cheap labour." Indeed, the labor market expanded not with skilled workers and professions, but generally with security guards, waiters, service staff, and construction workers. During the pandemic, the support given to tradespeople and small and medium-sized enterprises was shifted onto the public. The cost of the Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Anatolian earthquakes was also passed on to the public, despite the fact that their own contractor political party friends had constructed the buildings and were therefore culpable. 

 The government, or rather those in political power, hide behind inflation and place the entire burden on the people, or rather, all voters. In a democratic sense, the political party that forms the government or holds the majority should also bear the costs or distribute them among its members if they, as the governing party, benefit from this situation.

According to the Treasury Department's report for 2026, the government will have to pay $2.752 billion USD till October 2026 due to short-term debt contracts. In 2026, the government also needs to pay $32.102 billion USD in principal and $10.025 billion USD in interest on long-term debt contracts. According to the Central Bank's latest official reserves, both "short-term" and "long-term" debts amount to approximately $42.13 billion USD in payable assets. Official reserves are approximately $84.587 billion USD (as of February 6, 2026). Therefore, after these payments, approximately $41.870 billion USD remains in the Central Bank's coffers in gold and strong foreign currencies.

 

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