* Market Moves *



update: 2025  July, 03

The inflation expectation based on the median and average of the aboved calculations shows a decreasing trend for the Year- of-end (YoY)  inflation. But inflation means higher prices,  the SPEED of the inflation is decreasing!!!!! According to the TradingEconomics; Turkey is the 8th highest inflation regulated country in the World. The leader in Inflation (year over year) is Venezuala with 173% (April 2025) and than South Sudan with 113% (Oct.2024), Zimbabwe 92,5% (Jun2025), Palestine 47,57%, Burundi 45,5% Argentina 43,5% Iran 38,7%  and than Turkey 37,05% (https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=world) 
69,3% of the participated consumers in the survey expects higher prices to the next 12 months and an End-Of-Year inflation of 53%. (Turkish Households Survey  Central Bank of Turkey)

Türk-İş, the Turkish Labour Union announces the Hunger and Poverty Limits monthly based on ILO calculations. It shows the monthly, yearly and Year-To-Date (YTD) and average changes in the basic costs of a labour familiy (two adults and two childs). We  say that the Türk-İş Union Research shows the life-cost in the capitol of Turkey ANKARA from the labour perspective. Türk-İs is saying:"...As it is constantly emphasized; TÜRK-İŞ does not calculate inflation, it tries to determine the amount of "cost of living" that will provide a humane living for a family of four, and to calculate the burden that price increases bring to the family budget. The determined amount is not a wage, but the total income that must be brought into the household. The research conducted is not -as is thought- to determine the amount required for employees to "feed themselves", but to calculate the total expenditure that must be made "to live a life compatible with human dignity and value". ..." in their reasearch paper ( 31/1/2025 https://www.turkis.org.tr/turk-is-ocak-2025-aclik-ve-yoksulluk-siniri/ )


To calculate the "free from exchange rate effects" numbers, I use the Monatery Aggregates. The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) announces the Monatery Aggregates at there Statistical pages: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket. 

From there I use the weekly money and bank statics. From the notional amounts index, the difference of unadjusted and adjusted valuations of the M1 M2 and M3 monatery aggregates gives me the exchange effect. With this effect I calculate the Year to Date % changes. 

The use of Surveys data from the Turkish Central Bank, shows us the expectations of the Main Street and the Households. We can see how much Consumers trust the politicians of there promises.

 Abbreviations

Average and Median calculated on the Price Index references.

YoY: Year over Year      YTD: Year to Date                         
OVP: Turkish Government Medium Term Program target inflation end of Year 2025                                      
M1,M2,M3 Money Supply Measures indicators by Turkish Cental Bank Money Supply Data  by Turkish Republic Central Bank (TCMB), https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en

CBRT: Central Bank of Republic of Türkiye (Turkey)              

CB Survey:  Centralbank  Market Participants and Sectoral Inflation Expectations, monthly frequence. Participants Financial sector 54 companies (30 Banks and and 24 non-banks) and Real Sector 18 companies. The expactation various between financial and non-financial sector spreadly. The households and the producing sectors expects higher inflation. The "with the money interest gainer service sector" expects lower inflation.   Surveys: Central Bank of Republic of Turkey, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Tendency+Surveys

                   
TUIK: Turkish National Statistic Organization   https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index Tuik-B-CPI:  B Consumer Price Index except for unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and gold grade. CPI: Consumer Price Index                                       PPC: Producer Price Changes  

 Hi-Üfe  : Service Producer Price Index          Tarim-Üfe: Agriculture-Producer Price Index         Toptan: Wholesale                                  Raf ed.petr ürün :Refined petroleum product

 Türk-iş: Confederation of Turkish Labour Unions,    https://www.turkis.org.tr/turk-is-ocak-2025-aclik-ve-yoksulluk-siniri/

                                   
EuroRegion: EU members and use of Euro currency, consumer prices index     

                                  
EU Region: the European Union economic and political area                https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe                

 

ITO: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, https://www.ito.org.tr/en

ICOC: Istanbul Chamber of Commerce 

             1. ICOC Cost of Livinig Indicies for Wage Earrners 1995=100 

             2. ICOC Wholesale Price Index 1968=100

             3. ICOC İstanul Consumer Price Index 2023=100

The ITO, Istanbul  Trade Chamber (ICOC) research shows the worker perspective in ISTANBUL.  ITO prints also the wholesale figure changes.  Starting from February 2025 they calculated the Istanbul Consumer Price Index with base 2023=100. The methodology can be found on https://ististatistik.ito.org.tr/public/files/bulten.pdf?1738744909 .


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 Year-To-Date YTD changes free from Exchange Effect

 

 

 



Interpretation

 
We see on this table "Turkey 2025 May  inflation YTD chg %" the realized Year to date changes blooming rates. The Household consumers expects 59.% Consumer Price increases for the next 12-Months. The expectation is more than the market participations (Financial and Real Sector) because at the end, the consumer is paying the good or the service, if the consumer decide to buy it. Underline the word  if he/she BUYs it or is willing to consume it. The consumer expectation is on the one hand and on the other the realized increases of Indexes. 

Turkey is a "inflation lovely" country.  The inflation rate is decreasing, but the inflation car has shifted from 5th gear to 4th gear.



 The government, or rather those in political power, hide behind inflation and place the entire burden on the people, or rather, all voters. In a democratic sense, the political party that forms the government or holds the majority should also bear the costs or distribute them among its members if they, as the governing party, benefit from this situation.


 

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Copper 10 Year Price Graph Bakır Madenin Fiyatı USD/kg

 






































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